The Global Energy and Climate Model Report 2024, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), provides a comprehensive analysis of global energy dynamics and their implications for climate change and sustainable economic development.
This report utilizes the IEA’s Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC Model), offering a detailed sector-by-sector examination of energy supply and demand trends that inform policymakers, stakeholders, and the public about the urgent need for an energy transition amidst escalating climate challenges.[1][2]
Notably, the report forecasts that if current policies remain unchanged, global tem- peratures could rise by 2.4°C by the year 2100, exceeding the targets set by the Paris Climate Agreement.[3] This alarming projection highlights the inadequacy of existing climate strategies and emphasizes the necessity for more aggressive action to mitigate climate change. Furthermore, the report details the anticipated decline in coal usage for electricity generation, alongside a significant rise in renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which could comprise up to 74% of global electricity by 2050.[4]
The report also sheds light on regional disparities in energy access and production, revealing that the United States, Europe, and China are responsible for 75% of the world’s solar capacity, while Africa faces substantial challenges in electrification, with over 600 million people lacking access to electricity.[4] Efforts to enhance
electrification in Africa aim to reach 70% coverage by 2030, demonstrating the critical need for targeted investment in energy infrastructure to support burgeoning populations.
A pivotal element of the report is its examination of CO‚ emissions trajectories, which have surged nearly 50% since 2000, culminating in approximately 35 gigatonnes in 2023.[4] To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the report underscores the urgent requirement for dramatic reductions, particularly under ambitious climate scenarios that advocate for a decline of over 90% in emissions by mid-century. However, the analysis indicates that current global policies are insufficient to meet international climate goals aimed at limiting warming to well below 2°C, prompting a call for enhanced commitment to climate action on a global scale.[4]
Global Energy and Climate Model Report 2024
The Global Energy and Climate Model Report 2024, produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), serves as a crucial tool for understanding the current land- scape of energy demand and supply, and their implications for energy security, emissions, and economic development[1][2]. The report is built upon the integrated framework of the IEA’s Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC Model), which provides a detailed sector-by-sector analysis that captures the complexities of global energy systems.
Key Findings
The report highlights significant trends in energy consumption and production, fore- casting that under current policies, global warming is projected to reach 2.4ÚC by the year 2100[3]. This trajectory raises concerns about the effectiveness of existing policies in mitigating climate change, emphasizing the need for more ambitious climate action to achieve the targets set by the Paris Climate Agreement.
Energy Transition Scenarios
In examining future energy scenarios, the report identifies various pathways toward reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Specifically, it notes a marked decline in coal-gener- ated electricity across all scenarios by 2050, with projections suggesting a decrease of between 35% to 94% relative to 2023 levels. Conversely, electricity generation from solar and wind is expected to expand significantly, potentially accounting for 37% to 74% of global electricity generation by 2050[4]. This shift underscores the growing importance of renewable energy sources in the global energy landscape.
Regional Insights
The report also delves into regional disparities in energy consumption and pro- duction. For instance, the United States, Europe, and China collectively contribute to approximately 75% of total solar capacity, with China alone accounting for over 60% of capacity growth in 2023[4]. In contrast, Africa, which is experiencing rapid
population growth, faces significant challenges related to energy access, with over 600 million people still lacking electricity[4]. The IEA projects that electrification efforts in Africa will increase, aiming to cover 70% of the population by 2030[4].
Emission Projections
A critical aspect of the report is its analysis of CO‚ emissions trajectories. Since 2000, global CO‚ emissions have increased by nearly 50%, reaching approximately 35 gigatonnes in 2023[4]. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will require dramatic reductions in these emissions, particularly under the Ambitious Climate scenarios that suggest a potential decline of over 90% by mid-century. However, current policies are largely insufficient to meet the global goal of limiting temperature rise to “well below 2°C by 2100,” as outlined in international climate agreements[4].
